od flow
Learning to Rank Critical Road Segments via Heterogeneous Graphs with OD Flow Integration
Xu, Ming, Xiang, Jinrong, Xie, Zilong, Meng, Xiangfu
Existing learning-to-rank methods for road networks often fail to incorporate origin-destination (OD) flows and route information, limiting their ability to model long-range spatial dependencies. To address this gap, we propose HetGL2R, a heterogeneous graph learning framework for ranking road-segment importance. HetGL2R builds a tripartite graph that unifies OD flows, routes, and network topology, and further introduces attribute-guided graphs that elevate node attributes into explicit nodes to model functional similarity. A heterogeneous joint random walk algorithm (HetGWalk) samples both graph types to generate context-rich node sequences. These sequences are encoded with a Transformer to learn embeddings that capture long-range structural dependencies driven by OD demand and route configuration, as well as functional associations derived from attribute similarity. Finally, a listwise ranking strategy with a KL-divergence loss evaluates and ranks segment importance. Experiments on three SUMO-generated simulated networks of different scales show that, against state-of-the-art methods, HetGL2R achieves average improvements of approximately 7.52%, 4.40% and 3.57% in ranking performance. Keywords: Learning to Rank, Heterogeneous Graph, Random Walk, Ranking, Road Networks1. Introduction Efficient and resilient road networks are essential for ensuring smooth urban mobility and public safety. When a single road segment becomes congested or blocked, the resulting disruption often propagates along multiple routes, leading to large-scale delays or even citywide paralysis. Therefore, identifying critical road segments--those whose failure would significantly degrade overall network performance--is of great importance for traffic management and infrastructure planning (Xu et al., 2018). These approaches are intuitive and easy to interpret but fail to incorporate the rich attribute features and dynamic traffic behaviors associated with each road segment. In reality, a segment's criticality depends on multiple factors such as traffic volume, number of lanes, and functional hierarchy, all of which are neglected in purely topological metrics.
Downscaling human mobility data based on demographic socioeconomic and commuting characteristics using interpretable machine learning methods
Jiang, Yuqin, Popov, Andrey A., Duan, Tianle, Li, Qingchun
Understanding urban human mobility patterns at various spatial levels is essential for social science. This study presents a machine learning framework to downscale origin-destination (OD) taxi trips flows in New York City from a larger spatial unit to a smaller spatial unit. First, correlations between OD trips and demographic, socioeconomic, and commuting characteristics are developed using four models: Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Neural Networks (NN). Second, a perturbation-based sensitivity analysis is applied to interpret variable importance for nonlinear models. The results show that the linear regression model failed to capture the complex variable interactions. While NN performs best with the training and testing datasets, SVM shows the best generalization ability in downscaling performance. The methodology presented in this study provides both analytical advancement and practical applications to improve transportation services and urban development.
FloGAN: Scenario-Based Urban Mobility Flow Generation via Conditional GANs and Dynamic Region Decoupling
Yean, Seanglidet, Zhou, Jiazu, Lee, Bu-Sung, Schlรคpfer, Markus
The mobility patterns of people in cities evolve alongside changes in land use and population. This makes it crucial for urban planners to simulate and analyze human mobility patterns for purposes such as transportation optimization and sustainable urban development. Existing generative models borrowed from machine learning rely heavily on historical trajectories and often overlook evolving factors like changes in population density and land use. Mechanistic approaches incorporate population density and facility distribution but assume static scenarios, limiting their utility for future projections where historical data for calibration is unavailable. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach for generating origin-destination mobility flows tailored to simulated urban scenarios. Our method leverages adaptive factors such as dynamic region sizes and land use archetypes, and it utilizes conditional generative adversarial networks (cGANs) to blend historical data with these adaptive parameters. The approach facilitates rapid mobility flow generation with adjustable spatial granularity based on regions of interest, without requiring extensive calibration data or complex behavior modeling. The promising performance of our approach is demonstrated by its application to mobile phone data from Singapore, and by its comparison with existing methods.
Spatio-temporal Prediction of Fine-Grained Origin-Destination Matrices with Applications in Ridesharing
Yang, Run, Dai, Runpeng, Gao, Siran, Tang, Xiaocheng, Zhou, Fan, Zhu, Hongtu
Accurate spatial-temporal prediction of network-based travelers' requests is crucial for the effective policy design of ridesharing platforms. Having knowledge of the total demand between various locations in the upcoming time slots enables platforms to proactively prepare adequate supplies, thereby increasing the likelihood of fulfilling travelers' requests and redistributing idle drivers to areas with high potential demand to optimize the global supply-demand equilibrium. This paper delves into the prediction of Origin-Destination (OD) demands at a fine-grained spatial level, especially when confronted with an expansive set of local regions. While this task holds immense practical value, it remains relatively unexplored within the research community. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel prediction model called OD-CED, which comprises an unsupervised space coarsening technique to alleviate data sparsity and an encoder-decoder architecture to capture both semantic and geographic dependencies. Through practical experimentation, OD-CED has demonstrated remarkable results. It achieved an impressive reduction of up to 45% reduction in root-mean-square error and 60% in weighted mean absolute percentage error over traditional statistical methods when dealing with OD matrices exhibiting a sparsity exceeding 90%.
Traffic Matrix Estimation based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model
Yuan, Xinyu, Qiao, Yan, Zhao, Pei, Hu, Rongyao, Zhang, Benchu
The traffic matrix estimation (TME) problem has been widely researched for decades of years. Recent progresses in deep generative models offer new opportunities to tackle TME problems in a more advanced way. In this paper, we leverage the powerful ability of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) on distribution learning, and for the first time adopt DDPM to address the TME problem. To ensure a good performance of DDPM on learning the distributions of TMs, we design a preprocessing module to reduce the dimensions of TMs while keeping the data variety of each OD flow. To improve the estimation accuracy, we parameterize the noise factors in DDPM and transform the TME problem into a gradient-descent optimization problem. Finally, we compared our method with the state-of-the-art TME methods using two real-world TM datasets, the experimental results strongly demonstrate the superiority of our method on both TM synthesis and TM estimation.
Harnessing LLMs for Cross-City OD Flow Prediction
Yu, Chenyang, Xie, Xinpeng, Huang, Yan, Qiu, Chenxi
Understanding and predicting Origin-Destination (OD) flows is crucial for urban planning and transportation management. Traditional OD prediction models, while effective within single cities, often face limitations when applied across different cities due to varied traffic conditions, urban layouts, and socio-economic factors. In this paper, by employing Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce a new method for cross-city OD flow prediction. Our approach leverages the advanced semantic understanding and contextual learning capabilities of LLMs to bridge the gap between cities with different characteristics, providing a robust and adaptable solution for accurate OD flow prediction that can be transferred from one city to another. Our novel framework involves four major components: collecting OD training datasets from a source city, instruction-tuning the LLMs, predicting destination POIs in a target city, and identifying the locations that best match the predicted destination POIs. We introduce a new loss function that integrates POI semantics and trip distance during training. By extracting high-quality semantic features from human mobility and POI data, the model understands spatial and functional relationships within urban spaces and captures interactions between individuals and various POIs. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our approach over the state-of-the-art learning-based methods in cross-city OD flow prediction.
Detecting Contextual Network Anomalies with Graph Neural Networks
Latif-Martรญnez, Hamid, Suรกrez-Varela, Josรฉ, Cabellos-Aparicio, Albert, Barlet-Ros, Pere
Detecting anomalies on network traffic is a complex task due to the massive amount of traffic flows in today's networks, as well as the highly-dynamic nature of traffic over time. In this paper, we propose the use of Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for network traffic anomaly detection. We formulate the problem as contextual anomaly detection on network traffic measurements, and propose a custom GNN-based solution that detects traffic anomalies on origin-destination flows. In our evaluation, we use real-world data from Abilene (6 months), and make a comparison with other widely used methods for the same task (PCA, EWMA, RNN). The results show that the anomalies detected by our solution are quite complementary to those captured by the baselines (with a max. of 36.33% overlapping anomalies for PCA). Moreover, we manually inspect the anomalies detected by our method, and find that a large portion of them can be visually validated by a network expert (64% with high confidence, 18% with mid confidence, 18% normal traffic). Lastly, we analyze the characteristics of the anomalies through two paradigmatic cases that are quite representative of the bulk of anomalies.
Origin-Destination Network Generation via Gravity-Guided GAN
Rong, Can, Wang, Huandong, Li, Yong
Origin-destination (OD) flow, which contains valuable population mobility information including direction and volume, is critical in many urban applications, such as urban planning, transportation management, etc. However, OD data is not always easy to access due to high costs or privacy concerns. Therefore, we must consider generating OD through mathematical models. Existing works utilize physics laws or machine learning (ML) models to build the association between urban structures and OD flows while these two kinds of methods suffer from the limitation of over-simplicity and poor generalization ability, respectively. In this paper, we propose to adopt physics-informed ML paradigm, which couple the physics scientific knowledge and data-driven ML methods, to construct a model named Origin-Destination Generation Networks (ODGN) for better population mobility modeling by leveraging the complementary strengths of combining physics and ML methods. Specifically, we first build a Multi-view Graph Attention Networks (MGAT) to capture the urban features of every region and then use a gravity-guided predictor to obtain OD flow between every two regions. Furthermore, we use a conditional GAN training strategy and design a sequence-based discriminator to consider the overall topological features of OD as a network. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets have been done to demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method compared with baselines.
Cyclic Graph Attentive Match Encoder (CGAME): A Novel Neural Network For OD Estimation
Li, Guanzhou, He, Yujing, Wu, Jianping
Origin-Destination Estimation plays an important role in traffic management and traffic simulation in the era of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). Nevertheless, previous model-based models face the under-determined challenge, thus desperate demand for additional assumptions and extra data exists. Deep learning provides an ideal data-based method for connecting inputs and results by probabilistic distribution transformation. While relevant researches of applying deep learning into OD estimation are limited due to the challenges lying in data transformation across representation space, especially from dynamic spatial-temporal space to heterogeneous graph in this issue. To address it, we propose Cyclic Graph Attentive Matching Encoder (C-GAME) based on a novel Graph Matcher with double-layer attention mechanism. It realizes effective information exchange in underlying feature space and establishes coupling relationship across spaces. The proposed model achieves state-of-the-art results in experiments, and offers a novel framework for inference task across spaces in prospective employments.
Multi-View TRGRU: Transformer based Spatiotemporal Model for Short-Term Metro Origin-Destination Matrix Prediction
Ye, Jiexia, Zheng, Furong, Zhao, Juanjuan, Ye, Kejiang, Xu, Chengzhong
Accurate prediction of short-term OD Matrix (i.e. the distribution of passenger flows from various origins to destinations) is a crucial task in metro systems. It is highly challenging due to the constantly changing nature of many impacting factors and the real-time de- layed data collection problem. Recently, some deep learning-based models have been proposed for OD Matrix forecasting in ride- hailing and high way traffic scenarios. However, these models can not sufficiently capture the complex spatiotemporal correlation between stations in metro networks due to their different prior knowledge and contextual settings. In this paper we propose a hy- brid framework Multi-view TRGRU to address OD metro matrix prediction. In particular, it uses three modules to model three flow change patterns: recent trend, daily trend, weekly trend. In each module, a multi-view representation based on embedding for each station is constructed and fed into a transformer based gated re- current structure so as to capture the dynamic spatial dependency in OD flows of different stations by a global self-attention mecha- nism. Extensive experiments on three large-scale, real-world metro datasets demonstrate the superiority of our Multi-view TRGRU over other competitors.